{"id":14910,"date":"2026-05-22T16:47:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T11:17:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/blog\/?p=14910"},"modified":"2026-05-22T16:51:51","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T11:21:51","slug":"sell-in-may-and-go-away-is-a-great-headline-but-is-it-a-great-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/blog\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-is-a-great-headline-but-is-it-a-great-strategy","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Sell in May and Go Away&#8221; is a great headline but is it a great strategy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every May, without fail, the same headline makes the rounds. &#8220;Sell in May and Go Away.&#8221; It sounds like wisdom. It has the ring of a rule. And every year, some investors actually act on it \u2014 rotating out of equities, sitting on cash, waiting for November to come around and tell them it&#8217;s safe again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I want to address this directly, because I think it causes real harm. Not dramatic harm \u2014 no single investor blows up a portfolio by following a seasonal calendar. But the cumulative cost of sitting out a market that keeps compounding is significant, and investors deserve to know that the rule they&#8217;re following has almost no statistical foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is what the data actually shows. Over 26 years, the May through October period has delivered an average return of positive 0.39%, compared to positive 0.59% for the full calendar year. That 20 basis point gap is the entire evidentiary basis for one of the most repeated adages in investing. Twenty basis points. Not enough to justify exiting the market, paying transaction costs, triggering taxable events, and then trying to time your re-entry in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the last decade, May through October has actually outperformed the full year. The period you&#8217;re supposed to flee has been quietly generating better-than-average returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the more recent history makes the adage look even weaker. In the last decade, the May through October period has outperformed the full year by approximately 4 basis points. Over the last five years, that outperformance widens to roughly 23 basis points. May has been negative exactly once in the past ten years. Read that carefully: the period the rule warns you to avoid has, in recent history, been one of the better stretches you could have been invested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there is a genuine seasonal signal in this data \u2014 and I believe there is one, though a narrow one \u2014 it lives entirely in September. One month. Not May, not the six-month window the adage describes. September has historically been the market&#8217;s most consistent soft patch. Everything else that gets packaged into &#8220;Sell in May&#8221; is noise with a catchy rhyme attached to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The downside case for the adage fails just as badly as the upside one. Throughout the 21st century, the May through October period has produced as many negative phases as the full calendar year. Selling in May does not meaningfully protect you from drawdowns. It simply removes you from a period that, on balance, has generated positive returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let me address what I think is the more consequential question for investors sitting in front of their portfolios today: what is actually driving markets in May 2026, and what does it mean for how you should be positioned?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. markets are at record highs. I understand the instinctive discomfort that comes with that. Surely, the thinking goes, what goes up must come down \u2014 and buying at the top feels like the definition of poor timing. I want to push back on that instinct firmly, because I think it misidentifies the relevant variable. At record highs, the level itself is not what matters. What matters is what is driving it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When four out of five companies in the S&amp;P 500 are beating expectations and aggregate earnings are growing at 27%, markets at all-time highs are not a warning sign. They are the logical outcome of exceptional business performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is driving it, in the first quarter of 2026, is earnings. This has been a remarkable earnings season by any measure. Approximately 84% of S&amp;P 500 companies have beaten analyst estimates. Earnings growth has come in at roughly 27% \u2014 the strongest reading since 2021. These numbers are not a product of low base effects or accounting adjustments. They reflect genuine operating performance, broadly distributed across the index. That is why markets are at these levels. This is fundamentals-driven appreciation, not speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The historical record on forward returns after new market highs reinforces this point. Returns following all-time highs have actually been slightly better than average \u2014 approximately 9.7% over the subsequent year versus 9.3% in non-high periods, and 8.6% versus 8.1% over three- and five-year horizons. All-time highs are not a ceiling. They are, more often than not, a launching point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For investors who want a framework rather than a calendar, the variables that will determine market direction from here are clear. Rates and liquidity will drive valuations. Earnings breadth and durability will determine whether this rally has legs or is concentrated in a few names. Those are the things worth watching, analyzing, and forming views on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The calendar is not. Whether it happens to be May or November is not a variable that belongs in a serious investment process. The market does not know what month it is. Companies don&#8217;t stop compounding because of a seasonal saying that financial media runs every spring like clockwork.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My view, stated plainly: &#8220;Sell in May and Go Away&#8221; is a great headline and a weak strategy \u2014 and it is a particularly weak strategy in 2026, when the earnings picture is as strong as it has been in five years, when the historical record of the May through October period shows consistent positive returns, and when the data behind the adage itself doesn&#8217;t justify a 20 basis point difference in performance as a reason to exit the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stay invested. Stay selective. Stay focused on what actually drives returns \u2014 because it has never been the month of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read More on: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialexpress.com\/market\/global-markets\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-what-us-stock-market-experts-are-predicting-for-2026-and-whether-it-still-holds\/4234050\/\">https:\/\/www.financialexpress.com\/market\/global-markets\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-what-us-stock-market-experts-are-predicting-for-2026-and-whether-it-still-holds\/4234050\/<\/a> )<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing. The securities and examples mentioned above are only for illustration and are not recommendations.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every May, without fail, the same headline makes the rounds. &#8220;Sell in May and Go Away.&#8221; It sounds like wisdom. It has the ring of a rule. And every year, some investors actually act on it \u2014 rotating out of equities, sitting on cash, waiting for November to come around and tell them it&#8217;s safe &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/blog\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-is-a-great-headline-but-is-it-a-great-strategy\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Sell in May and Go Away&#8221; is a great headline but is it a great strategy?<\/span> Read More \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-point-of-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Sell in May and Go Away&quot; is a great headline but is it a great strategy? - appreciate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/blog\/sell-in-may-and-go-away-is-a-great-headline-but-is-it-a-great-strategy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;Sell in May and Go Away&quot; is a great headline but is it a great strategy? - appreciate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every May, without fail, the same headline makes the rounds. &#8220;Sell in May and Go Away.&#8221; It sounds like wisdom. 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