{"id":4692,"date":"2022-06-25T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-25T05:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/blog\/?p=1973"},"modified":"2024-04-17T12:27:57","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T06:57:57","slug":"recession-fears-strengthened","status":"publish","type":"rearview_mirror","link":"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/blog\/rearview-mirror\/recession-fears-strengthened","title":{"rendered":"Recession fears strengthened"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>18th June \u2013 24th June 2022 | Another week in the markets<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Nasdaq<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>VIX<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>DJIA<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Russell 1000<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>NYSE<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>3,911.74<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>11,607.62<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>27.23<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>31,500.68<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2,149.71<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>14,811.55<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>6.45%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>7.49%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-12.53%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>5.39%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>6.56%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>5.07%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Nifty 50<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Gold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Silver<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Brent crude<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>USD-INR<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>EUR-INR<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>15,699.25<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>$1828.10<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>$21.13<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>$108.99<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>78.25<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>82.60<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>2.65%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-0.73%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-2.31%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-4.07%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>0.38%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>0.94%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">MarketWatch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Hello Saturday,<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week world stocks had their first weekly gain in a month, commodities saw steep declines, and recession fears strengthened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Federal Reserve to continue with rate hikes even if that leads to a recession&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>34 major US banks pass the central bank\u2019s annual stress test&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Netflix in talks for advertising partnerships to roll out a new ad-supported plan for subscribers&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FTSE Russell to finalise the annual rebalancing of its indexes&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Copper prices fall by over 7%, another warning sign of a recession&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Taking stock | Contraction traction | Copper bottom | Stress tested OK | Adflix | Rebalancing act | Invest wisely<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Taking stock&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Global and US stocks ended the week with sharp gains. The MSCI global index saw a weekly gain of 4.8% breaking out of its three-week streak of declines, and the S&amp;P 500 saw its highest daily percentage increase since May 2020 at 3.1%. Dow Jones and Nasdaq also ended the week in green with a weekly gain of 5.39% and 7.49%, respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Contraction traction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates even if that means a recession will be inevitable. However, stocks rose the next day as Powell emphasised the Fed\u2019s commitment to slow inflation and sounded more optimistic about the economic outlook. The contractionary monetary policy of hiking interest rates makes borrowing expensive and reduces the supply of money in the economy. While this is effective in helping curb inflation, it also causes an economic slowdown. Currently, the inflation level in the US is around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/fed-strongly-committed-bring-down-inflation-expeditiously-powell-says-2022-06-22\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">three times higher<\/a> than the Fed\u2019s targeted level of 2%, and global uncertainty due to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19 has only been making things worse. According to Powell, a 100 basis points (bps) increase is not off the table if the economic outlook warrants it. Economists expect to see a 75 bps increase in July\u2019s policy meeting and a 50 bps hike in September.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Copper bottom<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Copper prices dropped to 16-month lows on Thursday. This is concerning because it\u2019s another sign of the looming recession. Due to copper\u2019s widespread applications in several fundamental sectors of the economy, copper prices are seen as a reliable indicator of economic health. There\u2019s been a drop of over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/investing\/future\/copper?mod=search_symbol\" rel=\"nofollow\">7% in copper prices this week<\/a>, and commodities overall have seen a sharp decline.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copper prices year-to-date:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/ut8UWZ-mEd9JyqxCfrGj0zwFEW6XoIO2ryAi7R8aAt41viFgCDfowU0_IcvLzAT-rRgKn6lLJygLxF_vF42VgpjcPpCPUsAcZzYBv07K_FFF3LhVpKki0WdroQe9XcnGcaQL4ubZzvuC2HbsrA\" alt=\"A graph on Copper price\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/1476\/copper-prices-historical-chart-data\" rel=\"nofollow\"><em>Macrotrends<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stress tested OK<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Thursday, 34 of the largest US banks cleared the Federal Reserve\u2019s annual health check. This annual \u2018stress test\u2019 was established after the 2007-2009 financial crisis to assess how the banks would fare in the event of a major economic downturn. The results determine how much capital banks need and how much they can pay to their shareholders.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year\u2019s results revealed that the 34 lenders who have assets of over $100 billion would take a combined hit of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/us-fed-says-banks-can-weather-severe-downturn-comfortably-2022-06-23\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">$612 billion in losses<\/a> in case of a hypothetical downturn. Despite this, they would have almost twice as much capital required to stay healthy. This means that all the major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and more can use their excess capital to pay dividends and issue share buybacks. The test essentially assesses whether the banks would be able to stay above the required 4.5% capital ratio and the average capital ratio for the 34 banks came up to 9.7% this year. Stocks of banks that had the lower capital ratios in the group slipped in after trading hours. These included shares of Bank of America whose capital ratio was the lowest at 7.6% and Citigroup at 8.6%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Adflix<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos confirmed that the company is currently in talks with several potential advertising partners to roll out an ad-supported version of its streaming platform. Netflix reported a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2022\/04\/20\/netflix-loses-200000-subscribers-in-its-first-quarter-warns-of-bigger-losses-to-come.html#:~:text=News%20Videos-,Netflix%20loses%20200%2C000%20subscribers%20in%20its%20first%20quarter%2C%20warns%20of,competition%20for%20streaming%20heats%20up.\" rel=\"nofollow\">loss of 200,000 subscribers<\/a> in the first quarter and has projected another decline of 2 million subscribers in the upcoming quarter. Hence, it is looking at offering a cheaper plan with ads to give a choice to the subscribers. Currently, Alphabet Inc\u2019s Google and Comcast Corp\u2019s NBCUniversal are the top contenders for this partnership.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Rebalancing act&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>FTSE Russell rebalances its indexes annually at the end of June to accurately reflect the broader markets, and its annual rebalancing this year will take effect from Monday. About <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/fridays-russell-rebalance-may-stoke-more-volatility-nervous-stock-market-2022-06-22\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">$12 trillion<\/a> is benchmarked to Russell\u2019s US indexes. Hence, such rebalancing triggers fund managers who have benchmarked the performance of their portfolios to these indexes to make adjustments to ensure minimal tracking error. Stocks of companies such as Meta, Netflix, and PayPal that saw major price drops recently are to be now included in the Russell 1000 Value Index. This index includes those companies that are considered to be trading at a discount relative to their fundamentals. Since the start of 2022, the prices of Meta, Netflix, and Paypal stocks of dipped by <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/3851101-ftse-russell-rebalances-indices-fb-nflx-and-pypl-to-enter-value-benchmarks\" rel=\"nofollow\">53.9%, 70%, and 62.6%<\/a>, respectively. Hence, several value index-based ETFs are now going to include these stocks as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Invest wisely<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While a bear market means your portfolio may be in the red in the short term, it also presents a long-term investment opportunity. At a time like this, you can benefit from buying stocks of companies with good fundamentals at a discount and set your portfolio up for future gains. Download the <a href=\"https:\/\/appreciatewealth.com\/index\">Appreciate App<\/a> to invest in a range of US value stocks and ETFs today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Warm regards,<br><strong>Another week <\/strong><strong><br><\/strong><strong>in the markets<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recession fears strengthened<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":4669,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set"},"class_list":["post-4692","rearview_mirror","type-rearview_mirror","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.7 - 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